An Alternative to Somalia’s Indirect, Clan-Based Election

In 2016, at the end of the mandate of the outgoing parliament, key political actors comprised of the former president (Hassan Sheikh), the PM, and heads of Member States convened a meeting  in the

nation’s capital, Mogadishu. They agreed to form a quasi constitutional body called  the National Leadership Forum (NLF) to develop a transitional plan that would conveniently bypass Articles 47, 89, 111G, and 73 of the Constitution. The result was the adoption of a limited election modality, widely referenced as “dadban”  because it is not a modality sanctioned by law in conformance with Articles 47, 89, 111G, and 73 of the interim Constitution.

Members of the erstwhile NLF justified their position by pointing to three major impediments as to why a broad political agreement was necessary at the time and why it must take precedence over what the Constitution stipulates. They cited (1) the absence of a legal framework (i.e., an election law), (2) the absence of a viable institution to oversee the election and certify the results ( i.e., a national independent electoral commission was not at the time established) and (3) widespread insecurity and fragmentation of the country as the main reasons for the delay of universal elections. 

A hastily created taskforce  with unconstitutional powers, the NLF promoted the interest of a coalition of key political actors that included former president (Hassan Sheikh) and his PM, Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke, and heads of Member States. The NLF  controlled almost all aspects of the electoral process as follows: Clan elders selected 54 delegates who would then vote for one MP based on the 4.5 power allocation. For the Upper House, which was new at the time, state parliaments would select a total of 56 senators. State presidents reserved the discretion to nominate two senators based on geography, clan balance, and elite-based interest. The electoral process of the 2016 model was marred by widespread irregularities, intimidation, and corruption. 

In May 2017, after the election of President Mohamed Abdullahi "Farmajo", the federal government made it a national priority to enact a multi-party system at the end of the current Parliament's term. Top priorities for the new government to tackle included: 

1. Security. 

2. Justice and commitment to holding universal elections

3. Combating corruption by strengthening the checks and balances of national, yet fragile institutions.

To what extent the current administration succeeded in its three main national priorities is subject to debate but reliable data indicate that the current administration undertook successful institution and state-building programs that far eclipses the previous administrations’ record  and have not been seen in the past 30 years of the nation’s history after the collapse of the last functioning nationwide state.The timeline below is to shed light of the root causes of the 2020/21 election crisis.

Timeline of major events related to the 2020/21 Election: 

 

Major Event	Description	Consequences/Impact
February 21, 2020	President Mohamed "Farmajo" signed the election bill into law	MPs win their seats in parliament by a majority rule (or first-past-the-post system), that is, the candidate who wins the most votes becomes the MP for that constituency. MPs will then elect the president and the prime minister.   Per the Election Law, the prime minister must be a member of the majority party in parliament.
February 24, 2020	UN Special Representative, James Swan, briefed the Security Council and calls the federal government and member states, and “Somaliland” to engage in dialogue and come to a “broad political consensus”1	The UN representative warned of the “myriad challenges” hampering the implementation of a universal election and has asked Parliament to make two specific amendments to the Election Law as follows:   Identify constituencies for “Somaliland” and Benadir Region   Guarantee 30% of parliamentary seats  for women in parliament.
June 14, 2020	Djibouti held a reconciliation meeting between the federal government and the self-declared “Somaliland” region	The meeting excluded key communities of Sanaag and Sool regions over attempts to resume peace talks. At the conclusion of the meeting, the separatist region gained access to developmental grants and aid.
June 17, 2020	Following the Djibouti Summit on the question of "Somaliland", the president held virtual meeting over Zoom with the leader of Jubaland and asked to resume talks and recognize his authority	One week later, the federal government recognized Ahmed Abdi Islam, “Madobe” as the interim president of Jubaland. Previously, the FG had boycotted his claim as ”president” due to regional election irregularities.
June 25, 2020	Chairperson of the National Independent Electoral Commission briefs the House of the People	The chair, Halimo, stressed that “one person, one vote” elections could take place no earlier than March 2021 — only if manual voter registration were used — or in August 2021, if the Commission used biometric registration,” per VOA article
July 18 – July 22, 2020	The FG and the Member States met in Dusamareb to start negotiating on election modalities called “doorasho dadban”	The leaders agreed on the goal of holding timely and credible elections acceptable to all. They also agreed to form  a technical committee and to meet again on August 15, 2020.    According to a UN report, these meetings became possible after President Farmajo reached out to Mr. Madobe in a conciliatory gesture
July 25, 2020	The Lower House of Parliament undertook a vote of no-confidence to dissolve the government of Kheyre	1.According to the House Speaker, the government “failed in its promise to prepare a clear plan that paves the way for one-person-one-vote elections in 2021”  2.The president immediately signed the no-confidence vote and dissolved the Federal Government.  Mr. Farmajo promised to appoint a new prime minister.
August 15, 2020	The president and leaders of Galmdug, Hirshabelle, and Benadir regions met in Dusamareb as agreed on the last meeting	The heads of Puntland and Jubaland boycotted the meeting citing the illegal removal of the Prime Minister by Parliament; they also asked for an international guarantor on the electoral talks.   Puntland accused the FG of arrogating more power to the Lower House of Parliament than the Provisional Constitution allows on the ratification of any electoral model agreement.
August 19, 2020	Somali Parliament passes the Supplemental Budget Appropriation Act for 2020 Fiscal Year	For the first time, the federal government allocates $10,000,000.00 to the National Independent Electoral Commission (see Code 11603).
August 20, 2020	The president and three regional leaders signed a new election model dubbed the ‘Electoral Constituency Caucuses’. The agreement embraces a limited election modality with elements of universal suffrage principles.  The agreement elevates the authority of the NEIC to lead the elections and to work with regional authorities, clan elders,  political parties, and the civil society.	The international community decries Puntland and Jubaland’s decision to boycott Dusamareb-3 and issues strict warnings.   U.S. Ambassador and other international leaders label those hampering the process to hold timely elections as “spoilers”.
September 17, 2020	The president calls invites Puntland and Jubaland to the negotiation table in Mogadishu	Stakeholders agree on revised election model that is akin to an extension of the 2016 election model.  The Agreement is dubbed "2019 September 17 Agreement" and currently serves as the foundation for holding a credible election in the near future.  In a speech to the Lower House, the president expressed great dismay at the failure to hold a timely and credible elections despite his repeated compromise with the Member States and a coalition of presidential hopefuls.  The president pointed to foreign interference as playing a key role in the current political impasse.

 

References

Hassan, M. O. (2020, February 21). Somali President Signs Historic Election Bill Into Law. VOA. Retrieved from https://www.voanews.com/africa/somali-president-signs-historic-election-bill-law

United Nations. (2020, February 24). Somalia’s 2020 Elections Will Be Historic Milestone on Long Journey Back to Security, Stability, Special Representative Tells Security Council. UN.org. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14120.doc.htm